Back to hurricane background and preparedness information

courtesy of National Hurricane Center

 

The Tropical Prediction Center, the NHC, and the Miami WFO, 1999

FORECAST PROCESS

HURRICANE FORECAST PRODUCTS
FORECAST CYCLE

COORDINATION PROCESS
OBSERVATIONS & DATA
FORECAST ERRORS
WATCHES & WARNINGS

• MAX MAYFIELD DISCUSSES - FORECASTS & COORDINATION (0.2mb MP3)
• MAX MAYFIELD DISCUSSES - WATCHES, WARNINGS & ERRORS (0.3mb MP3)


Part of the mission of the National Weather Service (NWS) Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) is to save lives and protect property by issuing watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous weather conditions in the tropics. This section provides information about the roles of those responsible for providing hurricane information to emergency managers and decision makers.

The TPC is comprised of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), and the Technical Support Branch (TSB). During hurricane season, the latter two provide support to the NHC.

The local NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in hurricane-prone areas are also important participants in the forecast process.

The NHC and your local WFO have various roles in the forecast process that are closely coordinated. Their activities are summarized in the table below.

Observation Observations including satellites, buoys, reconnaissance aircraft, and radar are the basis for all forecast and warning products issued by the NHC. Quality, quantity, and timeliness of remote sensing observations are critical for accurate and timely forecasts and warnings. LEARN MORE

Analysis The various observations are checked for quality, analyzed, and put into a suite of computer models. LEARN MORE

Central Model Guidance/Interpretation The computer models take in the observations and perform millions of calculations to generate predictions of hurricane behavior and the general conditions of the atmosphere in which the hurricane is embedded. The model results are packaged as guidance for the appropriate national centers and local offices and for evaluation and use in the NWS's forecast and warning process. LEARN MORE

Coordination within the NWS Forecasts and warnings are coordinated between the national centers and local forecast offices to provide consistency, which is critical during severe weather episodes. LEARN MORE

Product Generation Once the coordination and collaboration process reaches group consensus, the issuing offices generate forecast and warning products for release to the public. LEARN MORE

Product Dissemination Timely and reliable dissemination of forecasts and warnings is critical to the protection of life and property. The types of products issued are described on the Forecast Products page. LEARN MORE

Coordination with Customers The NHC and the local NWS forecast office work with your community leaders to determine whether the forecast and warning products issued were useful and how they can provide you even better service in the future. LEARN MORE

6 Hour Forecast Cycle

When a storm threatens the following occurs
0:00	A new hurricane forecast cycle begins.
0:45	Receive the location of the center of the hurricane.
1:00	Initialize or start the hurricane models with the storm's location and intensity
1:20	Receive model guidance and prepare a new hurricane forecast.
2:00	Coordinate with National Weather Service and Dept. of Defense.
3:00	Issue the full hurricane advisory package.
ISSUANCE TIME: 5am EDT (4 CDT) 11am EDT (10 CDT) 5pm EDT (4 CDT) 11pm EDT (10 CDT)
3:15	Participate in the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) conference call with the affected states.
6:00	A new hurricane forecast cycle begins.
**	When a Watch or a Warning is issued, intermediate advisories are initiated.